BAL vs MIA prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.3 - BAL 3.1. MIA is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
MIA
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIABAL
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
135
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 3.3 — BAL 3.1
Actual
MIA 7 — BAL 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
SI37%92 mph14% whiff
CU25%71 mph25% whiff
FC15%89 mph14% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
CH23%91 mph34% whiff
SI23%97 mph9% whiff
FF22%97 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
82°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.037
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.20ERA
3.90FIP
9.91K/9
3.75BB/9
1.31WHIP
MIA
3.68ERA
3.69FIP
9.96K/9
4.86BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.3% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-38.8% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+29.0% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+28.0% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.3% EV
+146
NRFI NRFI
+11.6% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.5 runs
34.3% win
MIA F5
1.8 runs
43.3% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Samuel Basallo BAL27.5%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA24.6%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Chris Bassitt | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chris Bassitt
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Heston Kjerstad LF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Will Robertson LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA5 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=235)
Sandy Alcantara (3.28 ERA, B-) dominates Chris Bassitt (5.90 ERA, C+) with a 2.62 ERA gap; MIA ML is cleaner value than the 29.0% UNDER edge in RED zone.
Key Factors
- Massive SP mismatch: Alcantara 3.28 ERA, 17.5% K rate, B- vs Bassitt 5.90 ERA, 12.7% K rate, C+ (2.62 ERA gap is top-3 in slate)
- Retractable roof (neutral baseline) + slight tail wind (7.1 mph) — offensive conditions mixed
- MIA bullpen elite (3.68 ERA, 1.223 quality) vs BAL decent (4.2 ERA, 1.071 quality) — bullpen edge +0.52 ERA
- Market backing UNDER at 29% edge but UNDER is in RED zone (50.8% WR) — systematic totals underperformance
- BAL has Gunnar Henderson (30% HR prob) and Samuel Basallo — power potential but vs elite pitcher limits it
Risk Factors
- 29% edge on UNDER = extreme overconfidence territory — model may be misunderstanding run environment
- Market oddly low on MIA at -138 (58.1% implied) vs model 53.9% win prob — suggests sharp doubt on edge
- BAL recent form unknown — could have recent offensive changes not in profile data
PITCHER MISMATCHBULLPEN FATIGUE CHECKHIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONERED ZONE TOTAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 53.9%
-12.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.3 pts
Total
8.5
+29.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →