BAL vs NYY prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.7 - BAL 4.1. NYY is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 4.7 — BAL 4.1
Actual
NYY 12 — BAL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF33%97 mph15% whiff
KC32%86 mph26% whiff
FC21%90 mph17% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF42%98 mph34% whiff
FC25%94 mph19% whiff
SI20%97 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
72°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.995 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.30ERA
3.91FIP
10.00K/9
3.79BB/9
1.33WHIP
NYY
3.51ERA
3.73FIP
8.62K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.0% EV
-125
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.5% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
-11.8% EV
-208
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
-196
ML AWAY
+8.3% EV
+166
F5_ML AWAY
+6.6% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.1 runs
35.6% win
NYY F5
2.7 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
55.1%
YRFI
44.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.334 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.10x
Trent Grisham NYY28.5%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Hans Crouse RPDAY-TO-DAY
Will Robertson LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Noda 1BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Ben Rice 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Hess SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 57.6%
-14.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →