BAL vs SEA prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 5.1 - BAL 4.3. SEA is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
SEA
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEABAL
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
SEA
357
Projected
SEA 5.1 — BAL 4.3
Actual
SEA 3 — BAL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI32%95 mph9% whiff
SL27%87 mph31% whiff
CU22%84 mph40% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
FF32%97 mph19% whiff
ST28%87 mph26% whiff
SI20%97 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
72°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.1% EV
-196
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-20.3% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-16.7% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+11.3% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+9.7% EV
+162
ML AWAY
-7.3% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.2 runs
32.1% win
SEA F5
3.1 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Josh Naylor 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Randy Arozarena LF10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE43.4% WR (n=12)
SEA OVER 7.5 at 11.3% edge (model 58.3%, market 41.7%) is clean value. Both pitchers mid-tier (Kirby B- 7.9 K/9, Bradish C+ 9.0 K/9); game should produce runs. Seattle's T-Mobile Park (0.89 factor, -11% run suppression) slightly works against over, but pitcher quality and lineup strength overcome it. Lean the OVER at 1.0 units.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality moderate: George Kirby (B- grade, 7.9 K/9, 0.312 stuff) vs Kyle Bradish (C+ grade, 9.0 K/9, 0.378 stuff). Bradish slightly better K-wise but neither elite; contact game
- Model-market gap: 9.37 projected vs 7.5 market = 1.87 run edge to OVER; 11.3% clear value
- Park factor works against: T-Mobile 0.89 suppression multiplier (-11% runs) vs neutral baseline = ~0.5-0.8 run headwind
- Weather neutral: 72.4°F, 7.0 mph wind neutral (only 2 mph tail wind) = 1.002 total multiplier (negligible)
- Lineups functional: Both teams have solid offensive cores despite IL designations
Risk Factors
- Zone warning: 10-15% OVER edge bucket only 43.4% WR (n=12 small sample) — worst zone bucket for OVER edge magnitude. Expect underperformance
- Park factor (-11%) is substantial headwind; actual total may drift toward 8.5-8.8 rather than model's 9.37
- BAL is strong team; may outperform expectations; SEA offense may be suppressed by quality pitching
TOTALS VALUEMODERATE EDGEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 57.0%
+9.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+9.7 pts
Total
7.5
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →