Who is predicted to win BAL vs SEA on June 18, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, SEA is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is SEA 4.7 - BAL 4.7.

How did BAL vs SEA on June 18, 2026 end?

Final score: SEA 3 - BAL 0. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

BAL vs SEA Prediction & Picks — June 18, 2026

BAL vs SEA prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.7 - BAL 4.7. SEA is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.

SEA

4.7

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

BAL

4.7

Projected Score

Win Probability

51.7%

48.3%

SEABAL

-1.5

Run Line (SEA)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,433 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

BAL

357

SEA

357

Projected

SEA 4.7 — BAL 4.7

Actual

SEA 3 — BAL 0

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Shane Baz R

BAL

FF33%96 mph13% whiff

KC33%85 mph27% whiff

FC18%90 mph18% whiff

Bryan Woo R

SEA

FF48%96 mph22% whiff

SI18%95 mph9% whiff

ST14%84 mph36% whiff

Weather Impact

T-Mobile Park

72°F9 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

BAL

4.34ERA

4.01FIP

8.76K/9

3.44BB/9

1.30WHIP

SEA

3.37ERA

3.72FIP

8.85K/9

3.64BB/9

1.33WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-34.7% EV

-179

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-19.5% EV

-105

ML HOME

-10.4% EV

-143

TOTAL OVER 7.5

+9.8% EV

-115

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-9.1% EV

+146

F5_ML HOME

-8.1% EV

-147

First 5 Innings & NRFI

BAL F5

2.4 runs

39.0% win

SEA F5

2.7 runs

45.8% win

F5 Total

5.0

NRFI

54.7%

YRFI

45.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.99

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.2

Over 0.5 HR

89%

Over 1.5 HR

65%

No HR

11%

Colt Emerson SEA30.0%

ISO: 0.370 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x

Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%

ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x

Pete Alonso BAL22.3%

ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.89x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Shane Baz

0.0 K projected

BAL | K/9: 0.0

Bryan Woo

0.0 K projected

SEA | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

BAL8 injured

Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL

Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL

Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL

Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL

Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL

Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL

+2 more

SEA8 injured

Julio Rodriguez CFDAY-TO-DAY

Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY

Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL

Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL

Randy Arozarena LF10-DAY-IL

Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE32.6% WR (n=8)

Game already concluded; model underestimated BAL away value (+4.1% edge) and overestimated SEA home value (-10.4% edge), but totals edge solid.

Key Factors

SEA pitcher Bryan Woo (B grade, 8.7 K/9, A- command score 0.785) has clear edge over BAL Baz (C+, 7.3 K/9, B command)
OVER 7.5 at +9.8% edge is strongest play; model total 9.38 vs 7.5 market
T-Mobile Park 0.89 park factor (run-suppressing) partially offset by neutral weather 72F
Away ML minor edge at +4.1% but away zone historically weak (RED, 45.3% WR)

Risk Factors

Away ML zone is RED; even +4.1% edge may not overcome zone profitability deficit
SEA home heavily favored (-142) suggests market has sharper intel on matchup

Sharp MoneyAgainst ModelMarket heavily favored SEA (-142 vs model 51.7%), suggesting public money on home team; sharp may be on BAL under-valued underdog.

PITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONETOTALS VALUE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

SEA 51.7%

-9.1 pts

Run Line