BAL vs TB prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.5 - BAL 3.5. TB is favored with a 52.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
TB
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
245
TB
245
Projected
TB 3.5 — BAL 3.5
Actual
TB 16 — BAL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF41%93 mph20% whiff
CH25%87 mph26% whiff
FC12%82 mph33% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF38%95 mph16% whiff
CH29%87 mph36% whiff
SL21%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
78°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
3.99ERA
3.89FIP
9.42K/9
3.76BB/9
1.27WHIP
TB
4.26ERA
3.66FIP
8.24K/9
3.33BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.8% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.2% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-14.8% EV
-164
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.4% EV
+150
ML HOME
-10.1% EV
-143
F5_ML AWAY
+8.2% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.8 runs
39.2% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
40.5% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL25.9%
ISO: 0.308 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Yandy Díaz TB23.0%
ISO: 0.085 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Grant Wolfram RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE38.2% WR (n=7)
Shane McClanahan (2.45 ERA, B- grade, 9.4 K/9) significantly outclasses Trevor Rogers (6.23 ERA, B- stuff but huge ERA gap). TB bullpen is strong (4.26 ERA, quality 1.056). BAL missing key bats (Mountcastle 60-day, Westburg 60-day) and Helsley (15-day). Home McClanahan at safe total (7.5) should dominate.
Key Factors
- McClanahan 2.45 ERA vs Rogers 6.23 ERA = 3.78 gap (elite ace vs back-end starter)
- TB beat BAL 16-6 yesterday (blowout). Market pricing BAL correctly/overpriced. Recency bias works against BAL today.
- BAL injuries: Mountcastle, Westburg, Helsley all out. Estimated -0.4 run swing.
- TB bullpen 4.26 ERA (good), BAL bullpen 3.99 ERA (also good). Bullpen neutral.
- NRFI 8.1% edge, UNDER 7.5 7.6% edge are cleaner plays than side.
Risk Factors
- Away ML is RED ZONE (45.1% WR, n=155) — even with pitcher advantage
- Recency bias: Market may be overpricing TB from yesterday's 16-6 win. Could be regression spot.
- Rogers has rough ERA but low-ish BB% (8.4%) — not completely hopeless if gets run support
PITCHER MISMATCHHOME ADVANTAGEINJURY IMPACTRECENCY BIAS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.0%
-13.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.4 pts
Total
7.5
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →