BAL vs TB prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.4 - BAL 3.8. BAL is favored with a 52.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
TB
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBAL
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.4 — BAL 3.8
Actual
TB 4 — BAL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI30%95 mph10% whiff
SL29%87 mph31% whiff
CU22%84 mph43% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST27%88 mph36% whiff
FF25%96 mph19% whiff
SI18%96 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
87°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.35ERA
4.03FIP
9.26K/9
3.94BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
4.26ERA
3.68FIP
8.32K/9
3.30BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.0% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-17.0% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+8.0% EV
-110
ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.3% EV
+164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.0 runs
41.8% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
38.5% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.2%
YRFI
39.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB27.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 0.92x
Gunnar Henderson BAL26.4%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 52.1%
-42.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.0 pts
Total
7.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →