BAL vs TB prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.1 - BAL 4.1. BAL is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
TB
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBAL
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.0% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.1 — BAL 4.1
Actual
TB 5 — BAL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF34%96 mph13% whiff
KC32%86 mph26% whiff
FC19%90 mph17% whiff
Steven Matz L
TB
SI48%93 mph15% whiff
CH30%83 mph28% whiff
SL13%83 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
89°F7 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.37ERA
3.99FIP
9.35K/9
3.89BB/9
1.32WHIP
TB
4.15ERA
3.65FIP
8.31K/9
3.29BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.5% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-29.4% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+20.4% EV
-110
ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-19.0% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.2% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.2 runs
47.1% win
TB F5
1.7 runs
33.7% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
10%
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Steven Matz | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Steven Matz | Park: 0.92x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Steven Matz | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Steven Matz
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Yandy Diaz DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.7%
-48.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.5 pts
Total
8.5
+20.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →