BAL vs TOR prediction for June 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 5.2 - BAL 6.5. BAL is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
TOR
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBAL
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (2,183 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
568
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 5.2 — BAL 6.5
Actual
TOR 6 — BAL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI30%95 mph8% whiff
SL27%87 mph31% whiff
CU23%84 mph42% whiff
Braydon Fisher R
TOR
SL50%89 mph32% whiff
CU28%82 mph25% whiff
FF16%95 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
74°F19 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.933 Total: 0.958
19mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.42ERA
3.86FIP
8.98K/9
3.63BB/9
1.33WHIP
TOR
4.07ERA
3.67FIP
8.94K/9
3.56BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.3% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-36.6% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+28.6% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+25.6% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-19.5% EV
-110
ML HOME
-17.0% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
3.9 runs
53.5% win
TOR F5
2.9 runs
35.2% win
F5 Total
6.8
NRFI
50.3%
YRFI
49.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.267 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.173 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Braydon Fisher | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jesús Sánchez TOR28.7%
ISO: 0.102 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Braydon Fisher
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SPDAY-TO-DAY
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Daulton Varsho CFDAY-TO-DAY
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
This game already resolved: TOR won 6-4. Ernie Clement homered. Kyle Bradish (BAL, 3.72 ERA) was outpitched by Braydon Fisher (TOR, 2.83 ERA, grade B). Model would have said TOR 58.5% away win prob, but TOR is home. Discard from today's analysis — results are in.
DATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.5%
-43.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.3 pts
Total
8.5
+28.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →