BAL vs WSH prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.0 - BAL 5.4. BAL is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
WSH
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
BAL
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHBAL
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.0 — BAL 5.4
Actual
WSH 3 — BAL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF42%94 mph20% whiff
FS20%88 mph19% whiff
SL15%83 mph31% whiff
Richard Lovelady L
WSH
ST43%82 mph27% whiff
SI30%91 mph22% whiff
FF18%92 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
88°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.989
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.13ERA
4.14FIP
9.13K/9
4.02BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
4.11ERA
4.66FIP
8.18K/9
4.17BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.2% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.6% EV
+122
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-10.6% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
-8.4% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-104
NRFI NRFI
+5.2% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
3.2 runs
45.3% win
WSH F5
3.0 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
49.6%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.6
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
87%
No HR
3%
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Richard Lovelady
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Richard Lovelady | Platoon: 1.12x
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.120 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Richard Lovelady
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Richard Lovelady
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Grant Wolfram RP15-DAY-IL
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 51.8%
-34.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.2 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →