BOS vs ATL prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 3.4 - BOS 2.8. ATL is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
ATL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLBOS
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
ATL
135
Projected
ATL 3.4 — BOS 2.8
Actual
ATL 8 — BOS 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brayan Bello R
BOS
SI44%94 mph13% whiff
FC20%87 mph46% whiff
CH12%88 mph26% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL38%85 mph45% whiff
FF35%95 mph11% whiff
CU11%83 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
86°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.068 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.70ERA
4.47FIP
8.86K/9
3.79BB/9
1.27WHIP
ATL
2.75ERA
3.21FIP
9.88K/9
2.75BB/9
1.04WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.1% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-43.1% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+35.8% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+33.8% EV
+104
NRFI NRFI
+13.0% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.1% EV
+125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.5 runs
35.6% win
ATL F5
1.8 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Grant Holmes
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.374 | Barrel: 18.4% | vs Brayan Bello | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brayan Bello
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS10-DAY-IL
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Wong CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF7-DAY IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 59.5%
-12.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.1 pts
Total
8.5
+35.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →