BOS vs BAL prediction for April 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.2 - BOS 3.2. BAL is favored with a 62.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
BAL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALBOS
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS L5BAL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
BAL
246
Pick Results
Adley Rutschman OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brayan Bello R
BOS
SI42%94 mph17% whiff
FC26%87 mph53% whiff
CH12%88 mph42% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF44%94 mph17% whiff
FS18%87 mph28% whiff
CU15%76 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
68°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.014
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
4.18ERA
4.78FIP
8.87K/9
4.11BB/9
1.26WHIP
BAL
3.42ERA
3.93FIP
11.00K/9
3.74BB/9
1.11WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-48.2% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.3% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+20.4% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-17.9% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.6% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-16.3% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
31.8% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
65.5%
YRFI
34.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Brayan Bello | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jeremiah Jackson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Brayan Bello | Park: 1.03x
Wilyer Abreu BOS29.6%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brayan Bello
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony RFDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Dean Kremer SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RPBEREAVEMENT
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Dietrich Enns RP15-DAY-IL
Heston Kjerstad LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE0.5% WR (n=569)
Market correctly prices BAL home favorite (62.3% model vs 61.0% implied) — no edge. UNDER zone RED across board makes 20.4% UNDER edge unreliable despite strong pitcher case.
Key Factors
- Young (0.0 ERA, new/untested) vs Bello (7.29 ERA, poor) — BAL should dominate, model 62.3% home justified
- BAL bullpen 3.42 ERA vs BOS 4.18 ERA — BAL advantage holds
- 20.4% UNDER edge technically actionable but RED zone (under 45.6% WR) means market beats this edge historically
Risk Factors
- UNDER zone RED — systematic market success against under bets (45.6% WR across 569 bets)
- Young is unproven (0.0 ERA ERA likely minimal sample) — actual performance unpredictable
- Total markets disabled in calibration (grade C, max edge 20%) — do not risk under despite large edge
RED ZONENO EDGEUNDER DISABLEDCOIN FLIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 62.3%
+7.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+7.1 pts
Total
8.5
+20.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →