BOS vs CLE prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.3 - BOS 3.9. CLE is favored with a 64.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
BOS
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEBOS
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.6% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.3 — BOS 3.9
Actual
CLE 4 — BOS 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI28%90 mph14% whiff
FC21%88 mph12% whiff
FF19%92 mph14% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FF27%94 mph12% whiff
FC26%86 mph36% whiff
CH19%81 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
70°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.75ERA
4.22FIP
9.12K/9
3.43BB/9
1.26WHIP
CLE
3.65ERA
3.84FIP
10.53K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-36.2% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-26.9% EV
+180
ML AWAY
-24.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-23.5% EV
-222
F5_ML AWAY
-20.6% EV
-116
ML HOME
+14.7% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.1 runs
34.0% win
CLE F5
3.0 runs
51.2% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Jarren Duran BOS22.4%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Rhys Hoskins CLE17.8%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE13.1%
ISO: 0.129 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Ceddanne Rafaela CFDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LFDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Kwan CFBEREAVEMENT
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
CLE home favorite 14.7% edge falls into worst historical performance bucket (high edge on favorites = 38% WR). While pitcher quality (Bibee > Suarez) supports edge, zone data discourages high-edge-on-favorite plays. Skip per calibration protocol.
Key Factors
- Bibee > Suarez pitcher
- 14.7% edge
- Home favorite zone
Risk Factors
- High edge worst bucket
- Zone 56.4% WR
HIGH EDGE WARNINGHOME FAVORITE ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 64.3%
-23.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-23.5 pts
Total
7.0
+13.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →