BOS vs COL prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 7.2 - BOS 6.2. COL is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 13.4 total runs.
COL
7.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
BOS
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLBOS
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
468
COL
579
Projected
COL 7.2 — BOS 6.2
Actual
COL 3 — BOS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF31%93 mph26% whiff
SI29%92 mph6% whiff
CH25%84 mph34% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF25%95 mph7% whiff
SL24%89 mph23% whiff
CH15%86 mph52% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
90°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.159 Total: 1.080
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-27.9% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-19.7% EV
-127
F5_ML AWAY
-16.5% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 11.5
-15.8% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-15.2% EV
-137
ML HOME
+14.7% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
3.5 runs
39.2% win
COL F5
4.1 runs
50.4% win
F5 Total
7.6
NRFI
43.7%
YRFI
56.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.42
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
90%
No HR
2%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x
Jarren Duran BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Gordon RP15-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
COL home projects 57.3% win prob, model 13.42 total runs (OVER 11.5 at 5.6% edge). But THE story is Coors Field: 1.18 park factor (highest on slate), 90.2F, thin air (3619 density altitude), 4 mph out. Both SPs weak (Feltner 0 ERA, Bennett 0 ERA). This is a pure Coors play; edge conservative but direction unmistakable.
Key Factors
- Coors Field effect: 1.18 park factor (highest today), 1.08 total_mult, 1.159 HR_mult — RUN-FRIENDLY EXTREME
- Temperature 90.2F + thin air (3619 DA) + 4 mph out = perfect storm for high-scoring game
- Both SPs weak (Feltner 0 ERA, Bennett 0 ERA, 4.8 K-rate) — no control
- Model 13.42 total vs market 11.5 = 1.92-run OVER edge (57.1% prob, 5.6% edge)
- Both offenses competent: BOS (Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran 30% HR prob), COL (no HR candidates listed but Coors does work)
Risk Factors
- Coors totals notoriously volatile and unpredictable despite park factor
- 5.6% edge modest for Coors play; market may already understand park advantage
- Zone profile YELLOW; totals market has been unreliable
PARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEYELLOW ZONEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 57.3%
-15.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-15.2 pts
Total
11.5
+5.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →