BOS vs COL prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.2 - BOS 4.9. COL is favored with a 62.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
COL
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
BOS
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLBOS
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
357
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.2 — BOS 4.9
Actual
COL 8 — BOS 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI25%90 mph14% whiff
FC21%88 mph16% whiff
FF21%92 mph16% whiff
Kyle Freeland L
COL
FF27%91 mph11% whiff
KC23%82 mph28% whiff
FC19%87 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
91°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.164 Total: 1.083
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
ML HOME
+38.5% EV
+138
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-37.0% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-32.7% EV
-164
F5_ML AWAY
-25.1% EV
-172
F5_ML HOME
+24.2% EV
+136
TOTAL OVER 11.0
-10.7% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.8 runs
38.2% win
COL F5
3.5 runs
50.6% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.5%
YRFI
53.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
5%
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Kyle Freeland | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Andruw Monasterio BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Kyle Freeland | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL24.9%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Gordon RP15-DAY-IL
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=121)
Extreme high-edge trap: Model projects home ML edge of 38.5% (58.2% vs 42.0% market), driven by Coors Field park factor inflation. However, edges >15% are historically the WORST-performing (per calibration data). This magnitude of disagreement suggests model overestimation, not market failure. The fact that BOTH pitchers have ERA=0 (missing data) compounds data integrity concerns.
Key Factors
- Coors park factor +1.18 (true) — but model 1.18 applied to baseline overestimates home advantage; Coors has ~10-12% true edge, not 38%
- Model edge 38.5% is in historically worst-performing bucket (15%+ edges = model overconfidence)
- Data integrity: Both starters have ERA=0 (missing data), preventing full pitcher quality assessment
Risk Factors
- Ultra-high edge (38.5%) is classic model failure signature. Calibration caps all edges at 15-20% for reason.
- Market sharp money (BOS -163) is contrarian to model and historically wins when model edge exceeds 25%
- Missing pitcher ERA data compromises confidence in any direction
HIGH EDGE WARNINGDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 62.7%
-5.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.9 pts
Total
11.0
+1.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →