BOS vs DET prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - BOS 3.0. DET is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETBOS
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — BOS 3.0
Actual
DET 4 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Payton Tolle L
BOS
FF60%96 mph26% whiff
FC13%90 mph33% whiff
SI8%95 mph0% whiff
Tyler Holton L
DET
FC37%87 mph14% whiff
CH18%84 mph30% whiff
SI15%91 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
77°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.967 Total: 0.978
thin air, 14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.84ERA
4.62FIP
8.33K/9
3.61BB/9
1.30WHIP
DET
3.96ERA
4.14FIP
8.82K/9
4.37BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-35.2% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-29.8% EV
+150
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.3% EV
-185
ML AWAY
-18.2% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.3% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+16.6% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
33.8% win
DET F5
2.1 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
66.0%
YRFI
34.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
16%
Dillon Dingler DET25.9%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS25.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Tyler Holton | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS23.8%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 5.1% | vs Tyler Holton | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Holton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Zach McKinstry 2B10-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 59.7%
-29.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.3 pts
Total
8.0
+16.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →