BOS vs DET prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - BOS 2.8. DET is favored with a 61.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETBOS
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — BOS 2.8
Actual
DET 3 — BOS 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jovani Morán L
BOS
FF39%92 mph17% whiff
CH36%83 mph45% whiff
FC17%84 mph31% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI46%94 mph8% whiff
CU31%78 mph31% whiff
CH22%89 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
60°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.983
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.85ERA
4.57FIP
8.41K/9
3.62BB/9
1.30WHIP
DET
4.04ERA
4.07FIP
8.98K/9
4.28BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.6% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-36.7% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+24.5% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.5% EV
-122
NRFI NRFI
+13.2% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-8.4% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.4 runs
30.7% win
DET F5
2.2 runs
49.9% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
65.3%
YRFI
34.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.313 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.167 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Jovani Morán | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jahmai Jones DET19.4%
ISO: 0.100 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Jovani Morán | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jovani Morán
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LFDAY-TO-DAY
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
DET8 injured
Gleyber Torres 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Max Anderson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=235)
Data integrity failure: Model favors DET 61% despite BOS having superior starting pitcher (Jovani Morán 2.52 ERA vs Framber Valdez 3.62 ERA); model likely overweighting home field or missing pitcher grades.
Key Factors
- MAJOR CONCERN: Jovani Morán (2.52 ERA, B- grade, 20.7% K rate) vs Framber Valdez (3.62 ERA, C+ grade, 18.3% K rate) — BOS has 1.10 ERA advantage but gets 39% model prob
- Model showing DET 61% at home, but away pitcher has significantly better Bayesian ERA (2.52 vs 3.62)
- Cold weather (59.5F) + wind-in (9.2 mph, tail -9.1) should favor low-scoring environment — UNDER 8.5 at 24.5% edge reasonable
- DET bullpen (4.04 ERA, 1.114 quality) vs BOS (3.85 ERA, 1.169 quality) — roughly equivalent, no advantage
- Home field worth ~2.5% win probability typically, but pitcher gap is 1.10 ERA (worth ~5-8% prob) — BOS should be slight favorite or tossup
Risk Factors
- Model-market mismatch suggests potential pitcher grade error or home bias over-weighting
- Cold weather could elevate defensive importance (fewer runs) but doesn't explain away pitcher quality gap
- If true pitcher quality is reversed from profile data, all analysis breaks down — data integrity flagged
DATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCHCOLD WEATHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 61.0%
-2.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.6 pts
Total
8.5
+24.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →