BOS vs DET prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.4 - BOS 3.5. BOS is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
DET
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETBOS
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
245
DET
135
Projected
DET 3.4 — BOS 3.5
Actual
DET 0 — BOS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC22%89 mph14% whiff
SI20%92 mph15% whiff
CU18%80 mph26% whiff
Jack Flaherty R
DET
FF46%93 mph12% whiff
SL26%85 mph30% whiff
KC19%78 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
57°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.976 Total: 0.985
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.93ERA
4.62FIP
8.62K/9
3.70BB/9
1.32WHIP
DET
3.86ERA
3.92FIP
9.12K/9
4.15BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.5% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-31.9% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+22.4% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.3% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+13.9% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.5% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
43.0% win
DET F5
1.8 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.1%
YRFI
37.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.97x
Kerry Carpenter DET26.8%
ISO: 0.269 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Riley Greene DET26.8%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Jack Flaherty
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LFDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Tarik Skubal SP15-DAY-IL
Beau Brieske RP60-DAY-IL
Max Anderson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Verlander SP15-DAY-IL
Troy Melton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=236)
Model projects 6.87 total vs market 8.5 = 22.4% UNDER edge (64.7% model prob), but with neutral SP matchup (Flaherty 6.37 ERA, C+ vs Gray 4.64 ERA, C+ = 1.73 gap favoring away BOS). Cold weather (57.1°F, 9.1 mph in-wind) suppresses runs, bullpen quality is even (BOS 3.93 relief ERA, DET 3.86 comparable). This edge comes entirely from cold/park factors, not SP dominance. NEUTRAL confidence (0) due to moderate edge (22.4%) combined with DISABLED total market. Consider SKIP rather than LEAN.
Key Factors
- Even SP matchup: Flaherty 6.37 vs Gray 4.64 (1.73 gap favoring BOS, standard). Neither is elite, both are below-average.
- Cold weather impact: Detroit 57.1°F + 9.1 mph in-wind = 0.8-1.0 run suppression vs 75°F baseline.
- Even bullpen: BOS 3.93 vs DET 3.86 (0.07 gap negligible).
- Neutral park: Comerica Park factor 1.0 (true neutral, no bias).
- Moderate edge: 22.4% is material but not extreme. Rooted in weather science, not SP dominance.
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market DISABLED (grade D). Betting against market-wide total disqualification is disciplinary risk. Recommend SKIP for portfolio health.
- Edge 22.4% triggers overconfidence alert. Model could be 10-15 points off due to batter adjustments or bullpen fatigue.
- Cold weather is real but variable: 9.1 mph in-wind is moderate. Actual wind gust could differ. Weather models carry 0.5-1.0 run uncertainty.
MODERATE UNDER EDGE (22.4%, cold/weather driven)DISABLED MARKET (TOTAL grade D, 49.3% WR recommends SKIP)EVEN SP MATCHUP (no SP advantage, entirely external edge)NEUTRAL CONFIDENCE (0 modifier, coin-flip calibration)COLD WEATHER FACTOR (57.1°F, 9.1 mph in-wind)LEAN OR SKIP (prefer SKIP for discipline given disabled market)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 50.2%
-39.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.5 pts
Total
8.5
+22.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →