FINAL: HOU 9 — BOS 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 5.5 - BOS 4.8 (HOU at 57.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
HOU
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUBOS
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS L5HOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
357
HOU
467
Projected
HOU 5.5 — BOS 4.8
Actual
HOU 9 — BOS 2
Pick Results
BOS @ HOU F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-1.00u
OVER 7.5totalWIN+0.88u
BOS F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
BOS MLmlLOSS-1.00u
BOS @ HOU NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brayan Bello R
BOS
SI35%95 mph10% whiff
ST19%86 mph26% whiff
FC16%88 mph24% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
FF36%97 mph26% whiff
SI22%96 mph16% whiff
KC17%84 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
76°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.019
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.04ERA
3.89FIP
9.24K/9
5.42BB/9
1.24WHIP
HOU
4.00ERA
4.50FIP
11.65K/9
3.87BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.1% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-32.6% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+24.9% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-167
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-154
NRFI NRFI
+4.1% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
HOU F5
2.4 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.9%
YRFI
40.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.6%
ISO: 0.120 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Brayan Bello | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS22.5%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Jose Altuve HOU21.4%
ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Brayan Bello | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brayan Bello
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Seigler 2B10-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Enyel De Los Santos RP15-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Hader RP15-DAY-IL
Nate Pearson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 57.1%
-2.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.4 pts
Total
7.5
+24.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →