BOS vs KC prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.1 - BOS 2.5. KC is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
KC
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCBOS
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
124
KC
135
Projected
KC 3.1 — BOS 2.5
Actual
KC 1 — BOS 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI28%90 mph14% whiff
FC21%88 mph14% whiff
CH18%81 mph29% whiff
Bailey Falter L
KC
FF51%92 mph14% whiff
SL18%85 mph18% whiff
CU12%78 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
58°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.62ERA
4.38FIP
8.97K/9
3.81BB/9
1.25WHIP
KC
4.29ERA
4.62FIP
8.87K/9
5.27BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-40.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-33.3% EV
+140
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.4% EV
-169
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+28.6% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.8% EV
-145
ML AWAY
-21.5% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.3 runs
33.1% win
KC F5
1.6 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
67.5%
YRFI
32.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
24%
Willson Contreras BOS19.0%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Bailey Falter | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS17.8%
ISO: 0.100 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Bailey Falter | Park: 0.96x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC17.1%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Falter
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS10-DAY-IL
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 58.5%
-32.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.4 pts
Total
7.5
+28.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →