BOS vs KC prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.3 - BOS 3.7. KC is favored with a 56.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
KC
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCBOS
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.1% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.3 — BOS 3.7
Actual
KC 3 — BOS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF33%94 mph20% whiff
CH21%84 mph21% whiff
SI19%92 mph7% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF30%93 mph16% whiff
CH23%80 mph27% whiff
FC17%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
67°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.043
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.52ERA
4.26FIP
9.08K/9
3.70BB/9
1.23WHIP
KC
4.20ERA
4.53FIP
8.93K/9
5.10BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.9% EV
-213
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.4% EV
+176
F5_ML AWAY
-19.1% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
+6.7% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.7% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.9 runs
31.5% win
KC F5
2.6 runs
51.8% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Willson Contreras BOS26.8%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x
Salvador Perez KC24.2%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC22.9%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS10-DAY-IL
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
KC8 injured
Lane Thomas CFDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 56.7%
-29.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →