BOS vs NYY prediction for June 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.7 - BOS 4.5. NYY is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
NYY
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (2,155 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
346
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 5.7 — BOS 4.5
Actual
NYY 3 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC22%89 mph11% whiff
CU19%80 mph31% whiff
FF18%92 mph13% whiff
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF29%96 mph17% whiff
CH23%85 mph35% whiff
ST20%81 mph45% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
84°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.95ERA
4.18FIP
9.08K/9
3.53BB/9
1.31WHIP
NYY
3.60ERA
3.81FIP
8.57K/9
3.50BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.9% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-30.9% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+11.6% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-11.1% EV
+122
F5 OVER 4.5
+11.0% EV
+108
F5_ML AWAY
-6.8% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.5 runs
37.4% win
NYY F5
3.1 runs
49.5% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
50.3%
YRFI
49.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.351 | Barrel: 19.4% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Nick Sogard 3B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=311)
NYY favored but OVER 8.0 is the angle: 11.6% edge (58.4% prob), enabled market, faces disabled ML. Weather hot (84.1°F, wind neutral) + Yankee Stadium HR factor (1.024) + Weathers (B-grade 3.8 ERA) pitching at home suggests offensive output. Market total 8.0 seems suppressed vs model 10.22. LEAN OVER 8.0 in enabled market.
Key Factors
- OVER edge 11.6% is HIGH but hits enabled market (over threshold 8%). Secondary risk: high edges historically show worse WR
- Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.024 — subtle but measurable edge for power hitters
- Weather: 84.1°F, wind neutral (-1.3 tail) — adds +0.5 runs baseline vs market baseline
- Starter ERA gap: Gray 3.3 < Weathers 3.8, both sub-4.0 — tight, low-run matchup fundamentally
- Both bullpens solid: BOS 3.95, NYY 3.6 — no relief lever advantage
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: 11.6% edge with 58.4% prob — falls into worst historical performance bucket (38.1% WR for 15%+ edges)
- Gray is road ace with proven track record — may suppress NYY offense despite home field
- BOS lineup injuries: Judge rib fracture, Stanton calf — limited offensive ceiling despite Contreras
TOTALS VALUEPARK FACTORWEATHER WARMHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.8%
+6.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.3 pts
Total
8.0
+11.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →