BOS vs SEA prediction for June 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.2 - BOS 3.4. SEA is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
SEA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BOS
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEABOS
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,456 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.2 — BOS 3.4
Actual
SEA 2 — BOS 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI26%90 mph14% whiff
FC21%88 mph15% whiff
FF21%92 mph16% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF46%97 mph15% whiff
FS20%86 mph24% whiff
SL14%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
79°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.4% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 6.5
-13.2% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 3.5
+11.8% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-10.9% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.5% EV
+168
NRFI NRFI
+4.4% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
40.0% win
SEA F5
1.5 runs
36.4% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
69.3%
YRFI
30.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Noah Song SPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Nick Sogard 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Julio Rodriguez CFDAY-TO-DAY
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Randy Arozarena LF10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=213)
F5 UNDER 3.5 is the cleanest play (11.8% edge): Bryce Miller (28.8% K-rate, 3.2% BB-rate, elite) + Ranger Suarez (23.9% K-rate) = dominant K-rate matchup; suppress early runs; Seattle's pitcher-friendly park (0.89 factor) aids UNDER.
Key Factors
- Miller K-rate 28.8% (elite, top-1%): Fresh arm early innings should dominate F5
- SEA park factor 0.89 (pitcher-friendly): Suppresses runs 11%; favorable for UNDER
- F5 UNDER edge 11.8%: Model 59.8% vs market ~48% — solid edge without overconfidence
- Both arms elite K-rate: Early inning strikeout dominance likely
Risk Factors
- Full game UNDER 6.5 shows only 4.1% edge — most value concentrated in F5
- Market may already pricing F5 efficiency; some regression possible
TOTALS VALUEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.5%
-41.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.4 pts
Total
6.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →