BOS vs SEA prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.5 - BOS 4.0. SEA is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
SEA
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEABOS
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,480 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
SEA
346
Projected
SEA 4.5 — BOS 4.0
Actual
SEA 1 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF36%94 mph21% whiff
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
CH20%84 mph20% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF37%95 mph21% whiff
SI25%95 mph9% whiff
ST19%77 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
70°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.984 Total: 0.989
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.2% EV
-227
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-15.7% EV
+184
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-12.7% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-8.3% EV
+104
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+4.0% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.1 runs
35.8% win
SEA F5
2.6 runs
48.2% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Randy Arozarena LF10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=239)
Emerson Hancock (SEA, 0.539 B- grade, 8.5 K/9) vs Connelly Early (BOS, 0.426 B- grade, 8.0 K/9, 4.11 ERA). Hancock slight edge (0.539 vs 0.426). Market prices SEA at -121 (54.8% home implied). Model gives SEA 55.1% vs market 54.9% = 0.2% edge (negligible). Edges on all markets minimal: home ML 0.2%, away ML -8.3%, OVER 4.0%. T-Mobile cool (70.5F), wind 6.5 mph in (0.989 multiplier). This is a market-efficient game.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Hancock (0.539 B-) and Early (0.426 B-) similar grades
- Home ML edge 0.2% = noise
- Cold weather (70.5F) suppresses runs; OVER 7.5 edge 4.0% is below threshold
- Market efficiently priced
Risk Factors
- Minimal edges across all markets
- Coin-flip probability
MARKET EFFICIENTMARGINAL EDGES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 55.5%
-32.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.2 pts
Total
7.5
+4.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →