BOS vs STL prediction for April 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.2 - BOS 4.5. BOS is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
STL
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLBOS
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS L5STL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
346
STL
135
Pick Results
Connelly Early OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF30%94 mph18% whiff
CH20%84 mph24% whiff
CU18%80 mph30% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
ST38%85 mph26% whiff
SI32%95 mph8% whiff
FF18%96 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
62°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
4.58ERA
5.55FIP
9.21K/9
4.99BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
5.29ERA
5.11FIP
7.21K/9
6.04BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.1% EV
-149
F5_ML HOME
-17.3% EV
+112
ML HOME
-12.7% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
+6.7% EV
-141
ML AWAY
+5.3% EV
-135
NRFI NRFI
+4.4% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.4 runs
52.1% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
29.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Wilyer Abreu BOS40.3%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS23.8%
ISO: 0.125 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x
Marcelo Mayer BOS14.7%
ISO: 0.103 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B10-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
+2 more
STL8 injured
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.0% WR (n=502)
BOS away dog ML edge 5.3% (model 60.5%, market 57.5% implied on -135) is fair value but away dog category is RED. Dustin May (17.23 ERA, C-grade stuff, disaster pitcher) vs Connelly Early (3.12 ERA, B-grade, 33% K-rate) — BOS pitcher mismatch strong. But away dog ML historically underperforms. NRFI edge 4.4%, RUN LINE away edge 3.1% both marginal. Prefer NRFI play over directional ML.
Key Factors
- Dustin May: 17.23 ERA (!), 21% K-rate, C-grade stuff (0.284) — career-worst or serious injury return
- Connelly Early: 3.12 ERA, 33% K-rate, B-grade stuff (0.645), solid command — reliable starter
- Model away ML prob 60.5%, edge 5.3%, market implied 57.5% (-135 odds)
- Away dog ML RED zone 45.7% WR (n=277) — structural headwind
- NRFI edge 4.4% stronger; prefer NRFI play if any
Risk Factors
- May's 17.23 ERA suggests injury/adjustment variance — could be elite return or continued disaster
- Away dog ML structurally underperforms despite pitcher advantage
- Market respects May's disaster status; odds reflect skepticism (-135 is appropriate)
RED ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 61.6%
-46.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.1 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →