BOS vs TB prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.0 - BOS 3.8. TB is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
TB
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBBOS
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.0 — BOS 3.8
Actual
TB 7 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
SI34%92 mph3% whiff
FF27%93 mph25% whiff
CH25%84 mph32% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC34%90 mph21% whiff
FF27%96 mph21% whiff
SI21%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
92°F5 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
4.00ERA
4.18FIP
9.23K/9
3.67BB/9
1.33WHIP
TB
4.19ERA
4.03FIP
8.29K/9
3.31BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.5% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-21.4% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+12.8% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+12.0% EV
+150
F5_ML AWAY
-10.0% EV
+138
ML AWAY
-8.8% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.9 runs
31.9% win
TB F5
2.9 runs
53.4% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE48.2% WR (n=17)
Market underpricing run-heavy matchup: Rasmussen (3.24 ERA, 24.8% K-rate, elite command) dominant vs Bennett (4.7 ERA, struggling), combined with indoor neutral dome and 92F heat boosting scoring — model 57.5% OVER vs market 42.5% implied.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Rasmussen 3.24 ERA, 24.8% K-rate, B- grade vs Bennett 4.7 ERA, 9.5% K-rate, C grade — 1.5+ run swing in TB favor
- Home field: Tropicana Field indoor (neutral wind, 92F), historically neutral park factor 1.0. Dome reduces variance; scoring predictable.
- Recent form: Rasmussen's last start 13 K vs BOS yesterday — elite, not fluky. Bennett coming off poor stretch (4.7 ERA suggests recent struggles).
- Line value: Market total 7.5 vs model 8.86 = 1.36 run underestimate. Combo zone 61.3% WR on TOTAL plays (n=42) provides modest support despite 48.2% on this specific bucket.
Risk Factors
- 15% edge in HIGH EDGE WARNING zone: historical WR only 25% on 15-25% edge bucket (1-3 record). Model may be overconfident.
- YELLOW zone: 48.2% WR (n=17) is below breakeven; combo pulls to 61.3% but sample very small. Risk of regression.
- Bennett could outperform: 4.7 ERA is stabilized estimate; real-game variance could favor him if he sharpens up.
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUEML VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 60.9%
+12.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+12.0 pts
Total
7.5
+12.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →