BOS vs TOR prediction for April 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.4 - BOS 3.2. TOR is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBOS
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS L5TOR L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
TOR
135
Pick Results
Trey Yesavage OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Kazuma Okamoto OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.69u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Payton Tolle L
BOS
FF61%97 mph27% whiff
FC13%90 mph32% whiff
CU8%83 mph50% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF41%94 mph16% whiff
SL32%88 mph36% whiff
FS27%84 mph58% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
60°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.982 Total: 0.988
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
4.01ERA
4.61FIP
8.63K/9
3.77BB/9
1.27WHIP
TOR
3.99ERA
3.50FIP
10.87K/9
3.62BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-27.1% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+19.0% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.2% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-15.2% EV
+168
NRFI NRFI
+13.3% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
36.8% win
TOR F5
1.8 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
67.9%
YRFI
32.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Wilyer Abreu BOS18.8%
ISO: 0.231 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Daulton Varsho TOR16.1%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.01x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR15.8%
ISO: 0.131 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
George Springer DH10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE51.3% WR (n=652)
Trey Yesavage (NO ERA DATA — red flag, likely new/limited usage) with B+ grade and 33.3% K rate vs Payton Tolle (1.62 ERA, B+ grade, 30.9% K rate) — Tolle has ELITE ERA and is favored away; model TOR 52.9% vs market 53.7% (actually slightly favoring TOR) = -2.2% edge on BOS; away team at coin flip; SKIP due to data integrity and away penalty.
Key Factors
- Payton Tolle has elite 1.62 ERA, B+ grade (33% K rate shown in pitcher profile K rate)
- Trey Yesavage missing ERA data = data integrity issue; listed as B+ grade with 33.3% K/9 but no Bayesian ERA means limited history or recent injury recovery
- Model edge -2.2% on BOS ML (favoring TOR) is modest
- If using TOR ML (+120 moneyline implied 45.2% fair vs model 52.6%), that's +7.4% edge but away team is RED zone (42% WR)
- Cold weather (59.8F + retractable roof CLOSED = neutral conditions actually) suppresses runs ~0.3
Risk Factors
- Yesavage data gap: If he's returning from injury or new call-up, elite K rate doesn't translate to ERA until history builds
- TOR away is red zone despite elite pitcher — fighting historical headwind
- Retractable roof status unknown (if closed, truly neutral; if open, slight wind IN suppresses)
DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHERAWAY ML RED ZONECOLD WEATHERNO EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 52.9%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
7.5
+19.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →