BOS vs TOR prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.6 - BOS 2.9. BOS is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
TOR
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBOS
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.6 — BOS 2.9
Actual
TOR 8 — BOS 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brayan Bello R
BOS
SI42%94 mph15% whiff
FC26%87 mph49% whiff
CH12%88 mph36% whiff
Eric Lauer L
TOR
FF47%90 mph13% whiff
CH19%83 mph16% whiff
FC16%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
51°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.87ERA
4.57FIP
8.64K/9
3.74BB/9
1.26WHIP
TOR
3.86ERA
3.41FIP
11.03K/9
3.60BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-50.5% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+43.4% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.0% EV
-196
F5 UNDER 4.5
+33.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.1% EV
+162
F5_ML HOME
-18.4% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
42.5% win
TOR F5
1.4 runs
33.1% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.5%
YRFI
32.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
69%
Over 1.5 HR
32%
No HR
31%
Jesús Sánchez TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Brayan Bello | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS22.8%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Eric Lauer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS20.3%
ISO: 0.304 | Barrel: 6.0% | vs Eric Lauer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brayan Bello
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Eric Lauer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Sonny Gray SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Jose Berrios SP15-DAY-IL
George Springer DH10-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 52.3%
-23.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.1 pts
Total
8.5
+43.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →