CHC vs ATL prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.6 - CHC 5.1. CHC is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
ATL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLCHC
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.6 — CHC 5.1
Actual
ATL 5 — CHC 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Colin Rea R
CHC
FF40%94 mph14% whiff
FS18%88 mph34% whiff
SL13%86 mph34% whiff
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL37%85 mph46% whiff
FF35%95 mph12% whiff
CU11%83 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
73°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.60ERA
4.75FIP
8.26K/9
3.95BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
3.04ERA
3.22FIP
10.01K/9
2.78BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.5% EV
-204
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-15.7% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.4% EV
+168
ML HOME
-12.2% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-11.8% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+6.3% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.1 runs
47.2% win
ATL F5
2.7 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
50.2%
YRFI
49.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Michael Conforto CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Grant Holmes
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Grant Holmes | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Colin Rea
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF7-DAY IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Burkhalter RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.3%
-12.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.4 pts
Total
8.5
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →