CHC vs ATL prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.7 - CHC 4.8. ATL is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
ATL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.7 — CHC 4.8
Actual
ATL 4 — CHC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF40%92 mph16% whiff
FS36%83 mph43% whiff
ST15%82 mph41% whiff
JR Ritchie R
ATL
FF27%94 mph15% whiff
CU26%82 mph35% whiff
CH16%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.008 Total: 1.001
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.50ERA
4.67FIP
8.33K/9
3.93BB/9
1.21WHIP
ATL
2.91ERA
3.17FIP
9.88K/9
2.73BB/9
1.05WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.5% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.6% EV
+120
F5_ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
-159
ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-10.4% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
+6.7% EV
+126
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.9 runs
44.0% win
ATL F5
2.8 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.263 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs JR Ritchie
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs JR Ritchie | Platoon: 1.12x
Moisés Ballesteros CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.131 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs JR Ritchie | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
JR Ritchie
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF7-DAY IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE58.4% WR (n=6)
Shota Imanaga (2.46 ERA, B grade, 27.6% K) is an ace, while JR Ritchie (3.92 ERA, C grade, 17.1% K) is back-end; model projects ATL home as slight favorite (49.4% win prob) at +6.7% edge, supported by home field and warmer weather (77°F). LEAN home at reduced units given modest edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Imanaga 2.46 ERA (B grade, 27.6% K) vs Ritchie 3.92 ERA (C grade, 17.1% K) — away pitcher advantage
- Home ML edge: +6.7% (model 49.4% vs market 46.3%); home field overcomes pitcher gap
- Weather: 77°F (warm, adds runs), 7 mph in (slight pitcher advantage), park factor 1.0 (neutral)
- Over edge: Model 9.49 vs market 8.5 = +0.99 runs; scoreboard tilt toward overs is small but real
Risk Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors away (Imanaga > Ritchie); home field typically doesn't fully overcome arm disadvantage
- Ritchie's 3.92 ERA could regress given C command grade; inconsistent back-end starter
- YELLOW zone with small sample (n=6) on home underdog — limited track record
PITCHER DISADVANTAGEHOME FIELDWEATHER IMPACTMODEST EDGEUNDERDOG VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 51.0%
-30.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.5 pts
Total
8.5
+0.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →