CHC vs CLE prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.5 - CHC 4.0. CHC is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
CLE
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECHC
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.5% (880 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
CLE
245
SOLID
1.0u
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Hits
Edge: 12.6% | Odds: -110
**Play:** Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Hits (-110) | 1.0u
Pete Crow-Armstrong projects at 0.94 hits mean facing Edward Cabrera — matchup dynamics favor the over.
**Key Factors:**
- Model projection: 0.94 hits mean vs line 0.5
- Starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi (13.46 ERA)
- Park/weather: suppressed scoring environment (0.95x factor)
**Edge:** 12.6% | EV +12.6% | Model: 65%
*Market prices 52%, model sees 65%.*
**Key Risk:** Cecconi command (B+ at 0.764) is surprisingly strong for 13.46 ERA pitcher — data quality concern
**Intelligence:** CLE projects 62.3% with Cabrera's elite stuff (0.582 overall grade) crushing a below-average home SP throwing 13.46 ERA.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH26%94 mph26% whiff
CU23%84 mph43% whiff
SI20%97 mph9% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF43%94 mph15% whiff
CU17%75 mph30% whiff
SL17%84 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
40°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.904 Total: 0.943
18mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.49ERA
3.55FIP
9.14K/9
2.52BB/9
1.16WHIP
CLE
3.57ERA
3.57FIP
9.74K/9
3.36BB/9
1.14WHIP
First 5 Innings
CHC
2.4 runs
CLE
2.0 runs
F5 Total
4.4
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Cade Horton SP15-DAY-IL
Seiya Suzuki RF10-DAY-IL
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
George Valera RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Gaddis RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.0%
-40.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.3 pts
Total
7.5
+1.8 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →