CHC vs COL prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 6.9 - CHC 6.6. COL is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 13.5 total runs.
COL
6.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
CHC
6.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,284 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
579
COL
579
Projected
COL 6.9 — CHC 6.6
Actual
COL 3 — CHC 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH32%93 mph29% whiff
SI20%96 mph4% whiff
CU18%85 mph31% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF25%95 mph6% whiff
SL24%89 mph20% whiff
CH17%86 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
75°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.185 Total: 1.095
thin air, 12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.12ERA
5.16FIP
8.04K/9
4.10BB/9
1.36WHIP
COL
5.39ERA
4.44FIP
8.18K/9
4.22BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 11.0
-22.9% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-22.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-19.8% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-19.2% EV
-152
F5_ML AWAY
-18.9% EV
-141
ML HOME
+17.0% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.8 runs
40.1% win
COL F5
4.3 runs
49.6% win
F5 Total
8.1
NRFI
37.8%
YRFI
62.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.2
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
92%
No HR
2%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RPPATERNITY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jake McCarthy CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jordan Beck LF10-DAY-IL
Mickey Moniak LF10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF7-DAY IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=100)
Market prices COL as a +127 underdog (44.1% implied), but model sees 54.1% win prob for COL at home — a 17.0% edge. The edge comes from pitcher mismatch (Feltner 4.56 vs Cabrera 5.39, 0.83-run gap) and home field advantage at Coors Field (+18% park factor), which the market discounts because CHC is a perceived superior team. Home underdog status combined with GREEN zone profitability (56.6% WR home ML) validates the contrarian play.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch to home team: Feltner 4.56 ERA (B-/C+ grade, 17.4% K rate) vs Cabrera 5.39 ERA (C+/C+, 20.4% K rate) = 0.83-run advantage to COL; Feltner's superior command (B+) matters at high altitude
- Home field at Coors Field: +18% run inflation multiplier (park_factor 1.18) is massive and typically worth 2-3 wins over the season; market's +127 underdog pricing suggests under-weighting Coors advantage
- GREEN zone profitability: Home ML combo shows 60.5% WR on 61 tracked home ML bets; home underdog status (56.6% WR on home ML) is historically profitable vs away favorites
- Model sees 17% edge: This is elevated and calibration warns of overconfidence, but the pitcher + park combination is legitimate and objectively measurable
Risk Factors
- High edge (17.0%) on underdog status is red-flag for model overconfidence per calibration data; historically, when model disagrees this sharply with market consensus, model is wrong 20-25% of the time
- CHC is perceived superior team (better record, higher rank); market's +127 underdog pricing may reflect real information (lineup quality, recent form) not captured in pitcher grades alone
- Coors Field is a double-edged sword: Yes, it inflates runs, but COL batters also benefit and CHC pitchers are harmed equally; the edge is that Feltner + COL lineup gets the Coors boost while Cabrera + CHC lineup does not
PITCHER MISMATCHPARK FACTORML VALUEGREEN ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 54.1%
-19.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.8 pts
Total
11.0
+13.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →