CHC vs CWS prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 4.5 - CHC 5.8. CHC is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
CWS
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSCHC
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
CWS
346
Projected
CWS 4.5 — CHC 5.8
Actual
CWS 9 — CHC 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Colin Rea R
CHC
FF38%94 mph13% whiff
FS19%88 mph29% whiff
SL12%86 mph31% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
ST38%82 mph21% whiff
SI26%94 mph5% whiff
FC24%90 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
86°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.992
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.32ERA
4.49FIP
8.65K/9
3.69BB/9
1.17WHIP
CWS
5.02ERA
4.81FIP
8.25K/9
5.21BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.9% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-19.1% EV
+100
ML HOME
-10.2% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+8.4% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-7.7% EV
+108
F5_ML AWAY
-3.2% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.2 runs
48.6% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
49.7%
YRFI
50.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.243 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x
Alex Bregman CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.127 | Barrel: 5.6% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Colin Rea
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 59.0%
-42.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.9 pts
Total
8.5
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →