CHC vs LAD prediction for April 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.4 - CHC 4.6. CHC is favored with a 60.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
LAD
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADCHC
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
LAD
135
Pick Results
Moises Ballesteros OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.14u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF28%92 mph15% whiff
FC25%86 mph30% whiff
CH14%84 mph27% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF41%94 mph23% whiff
SL30%87 mph39% whiff
CH18%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
65°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.44ERA
4.58FIP
8.34K/9
3.83BB/9
1.31WHIP
LAD
4.01ERA
3.44FIP
10.09K/9
3.73BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-32.6% EV
+130
ML AWAY
+32.3% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+32.3% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-28.4% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.0% EV
-105
ML HOME
-26.9% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.6 runs
51.4% win
LAD F5
1.9 runs
32.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Caleb Thielbar RPDAY-TO-DAY
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE0.4% WR (n=374)
Model projects 32.3% away ML edge (55.6% win prob) vs market 42.0% (away) — extreme 13.6 point gap triggers overconfidence warning. Away underdog zone worst historically (27.3% WR). Edge exceeds 13% cap; SKIP.
Key Factors
- 32.3% edge exceeds 13% ML cap — model flagged as overconfident on away underdog
- Sheehan 6.32 ERA, B- grade vs Taillon 4.29 ERA, B- grade — Taillon advantage modest (1 run ERA gap), not 32% worth
- Market 62.0% home (CHC) vs model 45.4% — 16.6 point probability gap massive for single game
- LAD bullpen 4.01 ERA (decent) vs CHC 3.44 ERA (solid) — bullpen edge to CHC but not decisive
- Park 0.92 (LAD depresses 8%) works slightly against away hitter
Risk Factors
- Away underdog zone worst historically (27.3% WR, n=22) — CHC is away underdog +138 — recipe for loss
- 32.3% edge > 15% triggers model overconfidence (38.1% historical WR at >15% edge)
- Market gap of 16.6% probability suggests strong consensus on CHC being underdog — market likely correct
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEEXTREME UNDERDOG EDGEMODEL OVERCONFIDENTAWAY UNDERDOG WORST COMBO
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 60.1%
-32.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-32.6 pts
Total
9.0
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →