CHC vs MIL prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.4 - CHC 4.0. MIL is favored with a 55.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
MIL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCHC
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.4 — CHC 4.0
Actual
MIL 3 — CHC 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Rolison L
CHC
FF45%94 mph15% whiff
SL20%87 mph15% whiff
CU19%80 mph28% whiff
Brandon Woodruff R
MIL
FF44%92 mph22% whiff
CH20%83 mph40% whiff
SI20%92 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
78°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.080 Total: 1.043
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.5% EV
-154
F5_ML HOME
-9.5% EV
-179
ML HOME
-9.2% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.0% EV
+128
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-5.0% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-4.4% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
MIL F5
2.5 runs
48.7% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Andrew Vaughn MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Ryan Rolison | Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC24.9%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Brandon Woodruff | Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC24.1%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Brandon Woodruff | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Rolison
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Woodruff
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=10)
Brandon Woodruff (B grade, 24.8% K rate) dominates Ryan Rolison (B- grade, 25.4% K rate) only in command (A- vs B-), but model projects 55.7% home win vs market 62.5% implied (-9.2% edge on home ML) — market significantly overvaluing MIL at -166. Away underdog CHC shows +3.9% edge but RED zone for away underdogs makes this dangerous.
Key Factors
- K-rate paradox: Rolison 25.4% vs Woodruff 24.8% — CHC away pitcher actually HIGHER K-rate than MIL home pitcher; command edge to Woodruff (A- vs B-) but stuff similar
- MIL home field: American Family Field 1.0 factor, 78F mild = standard home context
- Market overpricing MIL: -166 implies 62.5% but model 55.7% suggests market off by 6.8pts
- CHC +3.9% edge on away underdog but RED zone (40.9% WR combo) = dangerous zone historically
Risk Factors
- Away underdog is RED zone; avoid. Model edge 3.9% insufficient to overcome zone weakness.
- MIL bullpen 3.66 ERA vs CHC 4.04 ERA — home bullpen edge
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 55.7%
-7.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.0 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →