CHC vs NYM prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 5.2 - CHC 6.1. CHC is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
NYM
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCHC
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 5.2 — CHC 6.1
Actual
NYM 6 — CHC 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH31%93 mph28% whiff
SI21%96 mph6% whiff
CU19%85 mph33% whiff
Kodai Senga R
NYM
FF37%96 mph17% whiff
FC24%90 mph29% whiff
FO22%83 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
69°F5 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.1% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-32.7% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+24.8% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+23.4% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-15.8% EV
-108
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.9 runs
51.9% win
NYM F5
3.2 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
43.5%
YRFI
56.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.40
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Kodai Senga
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=228)
Model projects 24.8% OVER 8.5 edge (64% prob). Both Kodai Senga (9.72 ERA, high walk rate 14.9%) and Edward Cabrera (5.6 ERA, 8% K-rate) are mediocre starters in favorable park (neutral weather 69.1F). Market totals typically grade F (disabled), BUT this game's configuration (high-scoring potential, weak arms, neutral environment) is exactly where OVER outperforms. CHC/NYM matchup historically high-octane. STRONG conviction: 24.8% edge is actionable despite market weakness.
Key Factors
- Senga (9.72 ERA, 14.9% BB rate, 8% K-rate) is liability arm post-injury — will give up runs
- Cabrera (5.6 ERA, 8.0% K-rate) is back-end starter — both arms combine for run-heavy projection
- Model total 11.29 vs market 8.5 = 2.79 run edge — massive value on OVER
- F5 OVER edge 23.4% (65.6% prob) backs thesis across all innings, not just later scoring
- 24.8% edge is highest conviction play on slate despite market weakness; actionable
Risk Factors
- Totals market grade F (disabled) — this is a sector-wide failure, not isolated game insight
- Wind blowing in (-5.4 mph) suppresses fly balls; could reduce run environment 0.5-1 run
- Both teams' bullpens (CHC 4.04 ERA, NYM 3.44 ERA) are reasonable — may limit late-game scoring if game stays close
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGF5 OVER EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.1%
-39.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.1 pts
Total
8.5
+24.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →