CHC vs NYM prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.1 - CHC 4.3. CHC is favored with a 61.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
NYM
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCHC
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.1 — CHC 4.3
Actual
NYM 5 — CHC 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Javier Assad R
CHC
SI38%93 mph6% whiff
FF17%93 mph10% whiff
FC16%88 mph14% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI34%95 mph14% whiff
FF18%96 mph20% whiff
ST17%85 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
82°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.2% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.4% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-112
ML HOME
-20.5% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+13.8% EV
+155
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.7% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.2 runs
50.8% win
NYM F5
1.6 runs
32.6% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Ian Happ CHC26.2%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC22.3%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM19.4%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Javier Assad | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Javier Assad
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LFDAY-TO-DAY
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 shows strong 13.7% edge (60.5% model vs 46.8% market). Model projects 7.35 total vs market 8.5 line (-1.15 run gap). Away pitcher Assad (4.36 ERA, 15.1% K-rate, weak D-grade stuff) vs home McLean (4.35 ERA, 28.1% K-rate, B- grade). Both mediocre, but McLean has K advantage (28.1% vs 15.1%). Model projects low-scoring game driven by Citi Field (1.0 park factor, neutral), 81.7°F (warm but humid). However, field effect + weather don't support 13.7% under edge as much as it appears to be driven by pitcher K-rate gap (fewer strikeouts = more contact = fewer runs scored in close games). LEAN TOTAL UNDER with standard units.
Key Factors
- Home pitcher K-rate advantage: McLean 28.1% K-rate (B-, strikeout pitcher) vs Assad 15.1% K-rate (weak, fewer strikeouts). McLean K advantage leads to fewer balls in play.
- Model 7.35 vs market 8.5 = -1.15 run gap justified by K-rate gap creating lower scoring
- NRFI also strong at 2.9% edge (57.8% model), suggesting slow start expected
Risk Factors
- AWAY ML at 13.5% edge is also strong but in RED zone (avoid). TOTAL UNDER is cleaner.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 61.0%
-48.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.2 pts
Total
8.5
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →