CHC vs NYM prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.6 - CHC 4.9. NYM is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
NYM
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMCHC
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 4.6 — CHC 4.9
Actual
NYM 3 — CHC 4
Pick Results
Matthew Boyd OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
FF50%93 mph21% whiff
CH29%79 mph34% whiff
SL12%84 mph44% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH23%87 mph27% whiff
CU13%80 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
74°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.075 Total: 1.042
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.6% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-10.8% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-9.8% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.0% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-4.5% EV
-110
ML HOME
-3.0% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.5 runs
40.2% win
NYM F5
2.7 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
51.9%
YRFI
48.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.96x
Mark Vientos NYM21.3%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 7.5% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC19.9%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 10.8% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.4% WR (n=121)
Dead-even matchup (50.1% NYM vs 49.9% CHC) with both teams fielding mediocre #4-#5 starters. Freddy Peralta 5.22 ERA vs Matthew Boyd 6.48 ERA represents low-quality pitcher environment where model edge is minimal. Market pricing reflects this; no informational advantage exists.
Key Factors
- Matchup is 50/50 (model 50.1% NYM, 49.9% CHC) — statistically a coin flip
- Peralta 5.22 ERA vs Boyd 6.48 ERA (CHC slight edge) but both are below-average starters
- Citi Field wind out (+11mph, 10.9 tail) adds +4.2% runs, but variance is high with poor pitching
- Market already priced as pickem (-109 both sides)
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers have elevated walk rates (9%+ typical) — baserunners could lead to explosive inning swings
- No team has clear quality edge; confidence floor is 0
TBD PITCHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 50.1%
-34.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.6 pts
Total
8.5
+1.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →