CHC vs PHI prediction for April 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.3 - CHC 4.6. CHC is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHICHC
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
PHI
246
Pick Results
Miguel Amaya OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.32u
Jesús Luzardo OVER 5.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF44%92 mph18% whiff
FS34%84 mph36% whiff
ST14%83 mph42% whiff
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST37%86 mph54% whiff
FF23%97 mph22% whiff
SI22%96 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
88°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.984
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.26ERA
5.09FIP
8.18K/9
4.18BB/9
1.38WHIP
PHI
4.87ERA
2.63FIP
10.24K/9
2.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.6% EV
-179
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.7% EV
+146
ML HOME
-13.1% EV
-145
ML AWAY
+10.2% EV
+122
F5_ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-145
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-7.0% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
40.7% win
PHI F5
2.5 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
55.7%
YRFI
44.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.02x
Edmundo Sosa PHI26.6%
ISO: 0.169 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC22.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Aidan Miller SSDAY-TO-DAY
Jonathan Bowlan RP15-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 51.2%
-14.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.7 pts
Total
8.5
+0.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →