CHC vs PIT prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.7 - CHC 5.6. CHC is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
PIT
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 3.7 — CHC 5.6
Actual
PIT 2 — CHC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ben Brown R
CHC
FF38%96 mph12% whiff
KC36%87 mph46% whiff
SI20%97 mph12% whiff
Carmen Mlodzinski R
PIT
FS28%85 mph29% whiff
FF27%95 mph15% whiff
SI21%94 mph2% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
68°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.72ERA
4.98FIP
8.18K/9
4.09BB/9
1.29WHIP
PIT
4.28ERA
4.24FIP
9.19K/9
4.47BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.2% EV
-161
ML HOME
-22.4% EV
+106
F5_ML HOME
-21.6% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-18.1% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+13.2% EV
+134
ML AWAY
+12.8% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.9 runs
53.8% win
PIT F5
1.9 runs
30.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.0%
YRFI
43.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Michael Conforto CHC20.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT18.5%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 16.5% | vs Ben Brown | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Amaya CHC16.3%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Park: 0.95x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Carmen Mlodzinski
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=165)
Ben Brown (B pitcher, 2.26 ERA, 25.8% K-rate, 0.86 WHIP) over Carmen Mlodzinski (B- pitcher, 4.28 ERA, 20.4% K-rate, slightly elevated walk rate) — model favors away PIT with 62.3% win prob (+12.8% edge vs market 55.2%), but Chicago's 9-game losing skid and motivation mismatch favor home Pirates.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Ben Brown 2.26 ERA (ace-caliber arm) vs Mlodzinski 4.28 ERA — 2+ run difference in ERA is material (~15-20% swing in win probability)
- RED zone (away ML): 44.5% WR, n=165 — historical evidence away favorites underperform; margin 10-15 points below expected
- CHC in freefall: 9-game losing streak (matched 2017 Dodgers dubious mark) — psychology may impact lineup cohesion, bullpen trust
- Market only gives away PIT 55.2% (implied) despite 2.26 ERA advantage — suggests market pricing in CHC fade or PIT home field premium
Risk Factors
- RED zone assignment (away ML) is critical filter — 44.5% WR means this combo has lost money historically. Skip calibration also shows away ML at 42.2% WR for CM-1 confidence tier.
- Model edge 12.8% falls into high-edge bucket (15%+ edges show degraded WR per calibration) — beware overconfidence.
- Low-scoring environment (model total 9.28, market 8.0): If Brown pitches 6+ innings of 2-1 quality, PIT may win 1-0 without cover on run line; 62% is baked into a narrow margin scenario.
PITCHER MISMATCHRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 64.4%
-49.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →