CHC vs PIT prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.1 - CHC 4.2. PIT is favored with a 68.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
PIT
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 6.1 — CHC 4.2
Actual
PIT 2 — CHC 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Colin Rea R
CHC
FF40%94 mph14% whiff
FS18%88 mph30% whiff
SL12%86 mph33% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF36%97 mph26% whiff
ST17%84 mph25% whiff
SI16%97 mph5% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
71°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.0% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.9% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-22.0% EV
+168
ML AWAY
-19.2% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+17.3% EV
-122
F5 OVER 3.5
+13.4% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
23.9% win
PIT F5
3.9 runs
63.9% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Colin Rea
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
PIT home favorite with only 5.5% edge (67.2% win prob) but strong fundamentals: Paul Skenes (8.0 K/9, 3.24 ERA, B grade) vs Colin Rea (8.0 K/9, 5.22 ERA, C+ grade). Skenes' 3.24 ERA is notably superior to Rea's 5.22—this is a legitimate pitcher edge. Run model shows PIT 6.09 mean vs CHC 4.18 mean (+1.91 edge). Home favorite zone strong (56.6% WR). Edge is modest (5.5%) but fundamentals are solid. LEAN PIT ML.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage PIT: Skenes 3.24 ERA (B grade, 8.0 K/9) vs Rea 5.22 ERA (C+ grade, 8.0 K/9). Skenes is elite prospect with pedigree; Rea is journeyman
- Run model: PIT 6.09 mean vs CHC 4.18 mean = +1.91 run edge — this is sizable and suggests Skenes dominance
- K/9 matched at 8.0, but Skenes command (B, 0.642 score) > Rea command (B, 0.566 score) — slight edge
- Home favorite zone: MLB|ml|home (56.6% WR, n=166) is profitable. PIT is home at -175
- F5 shows 4.2% edge for PIT (70.9% prob) — early control likely
Risk Factors
- 5.5% edge is LOW for a home favorite. Market may have already priced Skenes' talent at -175
- Rea 5.22 ERA is elevated—could suggest team's struggles more than individual pitcher quality. PIT may be underperforming
- Run diff +1.91 is large; if CHC scores early, model breaks down
PITCHER MISMATCH CONFIRMEDHOME FAVORITE ZONERUN DIFF SUPPORTERA ADVANTAGE SKENES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 68.5%
+11.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.1 pts
Total
7.5
+17.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.