CHC vs PIT prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 6.1 - CHC 4.2. PIT is favored with a 68.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
PIT
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITCHC
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.3% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
PIT
468
Projected
PIT 6.1 — CHC 4.2
Actual
PIT 2 — CHC 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Colin Rea R
CHC
FF40%94 mph14% whiff
FS18%88 mph30% whiff
SL12%86 mph33% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF36%97 mph26% whiff
ST17%84 mph25% whiff
SI16%97 mph5% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
71°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.0% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-28.9% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-22.0% EV
+168
ML AWAY
-19.2% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+17.3% EV
-122
F5 OVER 3.5
+13.4% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
23.9% win
PIT F5
3.9 runs
63.9% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Colin Rea
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE56.3% WR (n=6)
PIT home favorite with only 5.5% edge (67.2% win prob) but strong fundamentals: Paul Skenes (8.0 K/9, 3.24 ERA, B grade) vs Colin Rea (8.0 K/9, 5.22 ERA, C+ grade). Skenes' 3.24 ERA is notably superior to Rea's 5.22—this is a legitimate pitcher edge. Run model shows PIT 6.09 mean vs CHC 4.18 mean (+1.91 edge). Home favorite zone strong (56.6% WR). Edge is modest (5.5%) but fundamentals are solid. LEAN PIT ML.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage PIT: Skenes 3.24 ERA (B grade, 8.0 K/9) vs Rea 5.22 ERA (C+ grade, 8.0 K/9). Skenes is elite prospect with pedigree; Rea is journeyman
- Run model: PIT 6.09 mean vs CHC 4.18 mean = +1.91 run edge — this is sizable and suggests Skenes dominance
- K/9 matched at 8.0, but Skenes command (B, 0.642 score) > Rea command (B, 0.566 score) — slight edge
- Home favorite zone: MLB|ml|home (56.6% WR, n=166) is profitable. PIT is home at -175
- F5 shows 4.2% edge for PIT (70.9% prob) — early control likely
Risk Factors
- 5.5% edge is LOW for a home favorite. Market may have already priced Skenes' talent at -175
- Rea 5.22 ERA is elevated—could suggest team's struggles more than individual pitcher quality. PIT may be underperforming
- Run diff +1.91 is large; if CHC scores early, model breaks down
PITCHER MISMATCH CONFIRMEDHOME FAVORITE ZONERUN DIFF SUPPORTERA ADVANTAGE SKENES
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 68.5%
+11.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+11.1 pts
Total
7.5
+17.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →