CHC vs SD prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.1 - CHC 3.8. CHC is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDCHC
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHCSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.1 — CHC 3.8
Actual
SD 4 — CHC 5
Pick Results
Miguel Andujar OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF28%92 mph12% whiff
FC24%86 mph27% whiff
CH15%84 mph30% whiff
Matt Waldron R
SD
KN34%81 mph10% whiff
FF20%92 mph16% whiff
FC17%88 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
71°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.975 Total: 0.984
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.28ERA
4.41FIP
8.06K/9
3.43BB/9
1.22WHIP
SD
4.53ERA
3.79FIP
7.89K/9
3.63BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.5% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-44.1% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 4.5
+28.5% EV
+110
NRFI NRFI
+20.1% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+19.2% EV
-122
ML HOME
-11.6% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
44.5% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
36.4% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Moisés Ballesteros CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Matt Waldron | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Matt Waldron | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Amaya CHC22.6%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Matt Waldron | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Matt Waldron
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Dansby Swanson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Caleb Thielbar RP15-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
Yuki Matsui RP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.6%
-45.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.5 pts
Total
9.0
+19.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →