CHC vs SF prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.8 - CHC 3.5. CHC is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
SF
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCHC
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
245
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.8 — CHC 3.5
Actual
SF 1 — CHC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Javier Assad R
CHC
SI42%93 mph6% whiff
FC16%88 mph15% whiff
FF14%93 mph18% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI37%93 mph9% whiff
CU28%77 mph37% whiff
CH19%87 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
60°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.960 Total: 0.975
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.09ERA
5.13FIP
8.16K/9
4.04BB/9
1.37WHIP
SF
4.14ERA
4.38FIP
7.98K/9
5.04BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-42.8% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+32.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.3% EV
-208
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.8% EV
+172
F5_ML HOME
-19.0% EV
-141
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.8% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
1.7 runs
43.3% win
SF F5
1.4 runs
34.9% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
66.8%
YRFI
33.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
70%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
30%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Javier Assad
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RPPATERNITY
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=188)
Massive UNDER edge on elite low-scoring matchup: Model 6.38 total runs vs market 8.5 (2.12-run gap = +32.1% edge, 70.7% model UNDER prob). Landen Roupp (4.32 ERA, B- 0.437) vs Javier Assad (5.11 ERA, C+ 0.388, weak stuff D-grade) at cold Oracle Park (60F, 10.1mph wind in, 0.88x park multiplier, 0.975x total multiplier). Both weak arms but Oracle suppresses runs heavily. F5 UNDER edge massive (+17.8%, 66.2% model). NRFI edge strong (+11.9%, 61.5% model) confirms early-inning suppression. Cold+weak pitching+bad park = sub-6.5 run environment.
Key Factors
- UNDER edge MASSIVE: +32.1% (70.7% model UNDER vs ~38% market), model 6.38 vs market 8.5 (2.12-run gap)
- Oracle Park brutally suppressive: 60F cold, 9.8mph wind in, 0.88x park multiplier, 0.975x total multiplier = ~0.85-0.90x effective run environment
- F5 UNDER edge strong: +17.8% (66.2% model) confirms scoring concentration avoided; NRFI edge +11.9% (61.5% model) validates early-inning freeze
Risk Factors
- CHC away favorite in RED zone (39.5% WR) — avoid CHC ML side; TOTAL is only actionable bet
- Assad weakness (D-grade stuff, 15.4% K-rate) could elevate walks/errors, increasing runs slightly above model
- Oracle wind conditions (10.1 mph in, 265 degrees) are forecast estimate; actual conditions could vary
TOTAL UNDER MASSIVE EDGECOLD WEATHERORACLE PARK SUPPRESSIONWEAK PITCHINGF5 UNDER STRONGNRFI STRONG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.1%
-21.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.8 pts
Total
8.5
+32.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →