CHC vs SF prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.5 - CHC 4.4. CHC is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
SF
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCHC
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SF
245
Projected
SF 3.5 — CHC 4.4
Actual
SF 5 — CHC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Rolison L
CHC
FF46%94 mph16% whiff
SL19%87 mph15% whiff
CU19%80 mph18% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI36%92 mph11% whiff
CH23%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
66°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.948 Total: 0.968
13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.00ERA
5.10FIP
8.15K/9
3.96BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
4.07ERA
4.46FIP
8.05K/9
4.87BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.4% EV
-200
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.7% EV
+164
F5_ML HOME
-20.1% EV
-161
ML HOME
-19.7% EV
-133
ML AWAY
+15.8% EV
+114
F5_ML AWAY
+15.6% EV
+128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.2 runs
45.1% win
SF F5
2.0 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Ian Happ CHC29.4%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Seiya Suzuki CHC24.3%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x
Bryce Eldridge SF22.3%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Ryan Rolison | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Rolison
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 56.3%
-21.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.7 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →