CHC vs STL prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.8 - CHC 5.7. CHC is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
STL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.8 — CHC 5.7
Actual
STL 1 — CHC 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ben Brown R
CHC
KC37%87 mph47% whiff
FF37%97 mph12% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
CU15%82 mph28% whiff
SL15%89 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
78°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.36ERA
4.35FIP
8.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.4% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-33.1% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+14.3% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.9% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-11.6% EV
+110
ML HOME
-7.8% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.3 runs
51.4% win
STL F5
2.6 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Ian Happ CHC25.9%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Amaya CHC24.7%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Seiya Suzuki CHC20.9%
ISO: 0.189 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=299)
Brown (9.6 K/9, B grade) creates pitcher mismatch to STL (away), but market is efficient at -131 (56.8% implied vs 56.5% model). STL as away dog can't overcome RED zone bias historically (43.4% WR). Over edge 14.3% is disabled totals trap. No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Ben Brown (STL away, B grade, 9.6 K/9, excellent) vs Kyle Leahy (CHC home, C+ grade, 7.5 K/9). BROWN IS CLEARLY SUPERIOR: +2.1 K/9, B vs C+ grade. This is PITCHER_MISMATCH TO STL (away).
- STL has PITCHER ADVANTAGE despite being away team. Model shows STL (away) at 56.5% with away dog -131. Both of these are in worst zones historically: (1) away ML RED zone 43.4% WR, (2) high edges >15% worst performers.
- Over edge 14.3% on disabled totals (YELLOW zone, 50.1% WR). This is trap edge.
- Park/weather neutral (77.9°F, minimal wind 1.6 mph in). No environmental edge.
- CHC is rebuilding (2nd-worst in NL), STL is competitive (3rd NL Central). Lineup edge to STL.
Risk Factors
- STL as away dog is in RED zone (43.4% WR). Brown's pitcher advantage (+2.1 K/9, B grade) doesn't overcome away RED zone bias historically.
- Over edge 14.3% is disabled totals. Market's 8.0 is likely correct; model overconfident on runs.
- Model edge is minimal on ML (-0.3% after factoring edge direction). This is essentially fair matchup, not actionable play.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 56.9%
-39.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.4 pts
Total
8.0
+14.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →