CHC vs STL prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.8 - CHC 5.7. CHC is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
STL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.8 — CHC 5.7
Actual
STL 1 — CHC 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ben Brown R
CHC
KC37%87 mph47% whiff
FF37%97 mph12% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
CU15%82 mph28% whiff
SL15%89 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
78°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.36ERA
4.35FIP
8.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-39.4% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-33.1% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+14.3% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.9% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-11.6% EV
+110
ML HOME
-7.8% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.3 runs
51.4% win
STL F5
2.6 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Ian Happ CHC25.9%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Amaya CHC24.7%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Seiya Suzuki CHC20.9%
ISO: 0.189 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ben Brown
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Brown (9.6 K/9, B grade) creates pitcher mismatch to STL (away), but market is efficient at -131 (56.8% implied vs 56.5% model). STL as away dog can't overcome historically weak bias historically (a supportive track record). Over edge 14.3% is disabled totals trap. No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Ben Brown (STL away, B grade, 9.6 K/9, excellent) vs Kyle Leahy (CHC home, C+ grade, 7.5 K/9). BROWN IS CLEARLY SUPERIOR: +2.1 K/9, B vs C+ grade. This is PITCHER_MISMATCH TO STL (away).
- STL has PITCHER ADVANTAGE despite being away team. Model shows STL (away) at 56.5% with away dog -131. Both of these are in worst historical supports historically: (1) away ML historically weak a supportive track record, (2) high edges >15% worst performers.
- Over edge 14.3% on disabled totals (historically mixed, a supportive track record). This is trap edge.
- Park/weather neutral (77.9°F, minimal wind 1.6 mph in). No environmental edge.
- CHC is rebuilding (2nd-worst in NL), STL is competitive (3rd NL Central). Lineup edge to STL.
Risk Factors
- STL as away dog is historically weak. Brown's pitcher advantage (+2.1 K/9, B grade) doesn't overcome away historically weak bias historically.
- Over edge 14.3% is disabled totals. Market's 8.0 is likely correct; model overconfident on runs.
- Model edge is minimal on ML (-0.3% after factoring edge direction). This is essentially fair matchup, not actionable play.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 56.9%
-39.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-39.4 pts
Total
8.0
+14.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.