Who is predicted to win CHC vs STL on May 31, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, CHC is favored with a 66.3% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is STL 3.4 - CHC 5.3.

How did CHC vs STL on May 31, 2026 end?

Final score: STL 5 - CHC 1. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

CHC vs STL Prediction & Picks — May 31, 2026

CHC vs STL prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - CHC 5.3. CHC is favored with a 66.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.

STL

3.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

CHC

5.3

Projected Score

Win Probability

33.7%

66.3%

STLCHC

+1.5

Run Line (STL)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CHC

357

STL

135

Projected

STL 3.4 — CHC 5.3

Actual

STL 5 — CHC 1

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jordan Wicks L

CHC

FF41%94 mph14% whiff

CH26%83 mph46% whiff

SL14%87 mph26% whiff

Matthew Liberatore L

STL

FF32%94 mph11% whiff

SL24%86 mph35% whiff

CH15%89 mph23% whiff

Weather Impact

Busch Stadium

72°F10 mph wind

HR: 1.032 Total: 1.016

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

CHC

3.89ERA

5.11FIP

8.24K/9

4.09BB/9

1.33WHIP

STL

4.36ERA

4.35FIP

8.23K/9

4.51BB/9

1.39WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-53.0% EV

-196

F5_ML HOME

-37.4% EV

-128

ML HOME

-31.0% EV

-116

F5_ML AWAY

+30.9% EV

+102

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

+26.2% EV

+162

ML AWAY

+24.6% EV

-102

First 5 Innings & NRFI

CHC F5

3.0 runs

60.0% win

STL F5

1.6 runs

24.7% win

F5 Total

4.6

NRFI

55.0%

YRFI

45.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.96

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.1

Over 0.5 HR

87%

Over 1.5 HR

60%

No HR

13%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Jordan Wicks

0.0 K projected

CHC | K/9: 0.0

Matthew Liberatore

0.0 K projected

STL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

CHC8 injured

Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL

Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL

Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL

Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL

Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY

Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

STL8 injured

Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL

Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL

Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL

Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY

Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY

Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

STRONG BET +1

CHC away underdog shows monster 24.6% edge on ML (model 62.9%, market 50.5%) in RARE profitable away spot driven by Jordan Wicks (B-grade, 11.0 K/9, command A-) vs Matthew Liberatore (B-, 8.5 K/9, lower stuff). 30.9% F5 edge compounds play. STL home (33.7% model) is market respected but model sees CHC value. Away combo historically strong (62.5% WR on away favs).

Key Factors

Jordan Wicks (CHC away, B-grade, 11.0 K/9, command A- 87.5%) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL home, B-, 8.5 K/9, command B 61%) — CHC pitcher BETTER
Market -116 STL (53.7% implied) vs model 62.9% away — 24.6% edge
F5 ML AWAY shows 30.9% edge (model 64.8%) — early-inning CHC dominance
Busch Stadium (wind 10.1 mph neutral), 72.1F, humid 92% — baseline conditions
Run line AWAY -1.5 shows 26.2% edge (model 48.2%) — significant confidence

Risk Factors

24.6% edge away (usually RED zone) shows rare +EV — but still upper-edge range (38% WR historical)
STL market respecting game at -116 (smart betting by books)
F5 market disabled per calibration, but F5 edge 30.9% compelling

PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY ADVANTAGEF5 STRONG EDGE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

CHC 66.3%

-53.0 pts

Run Line