CHC vs STL prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - CHC 5.3. CHC is favored with a 66.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
STL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.0% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.4 — CHC 5.3
Actual
STL 5 — CHC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jordan Wicks L
CHC
FF41%94 mph14% whiff
CH26%83 mph46% whiff
SL14%87 mph26% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CH15%89 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
72°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.36ERA
4.35FIP
8.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-53.0% EV
-196
F5_ML HOME
-37.4% EV
-128
ML HOME
-31.0% EV
-116
F5_ML AWAY
+30.9% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+26.2% EV
+162
ML AWAY
+24.6% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.0 runs
60.0% win
STL F5
1.6 runs
24.7% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jordan Wicks
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
CHC away underdog shows monster 24.6% edge on ML (model 62.9%, market 50.5%) in RARE profitable away spot driven by Jordan Wicks (B-grade, 11.0 K/9, command A-) vs Matthew Liberatore (B-, 8.5 K/9, lower stuff). 30.9% F5 edge compounds play. STL home (33.7% model) is market respected but model sees CHC value. Away combo historically strong (62.5% WR on away favs).
Key Factors
- Jordan Wicks (CHC away, B-grade, 11.0 K/9, command A- 87.5%) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL home, B-, 8.5 K/9, command B 61%) — CHC pitcher BETTER
- Market -116 STL (53.7% implied) vs model 62.9% away — 24.6% edge
- F5 ML AWAY shows 30.9% edge (model 64.8%) — early-inning CHC dominance
- Busch Stadium (wind 10.1 mph neutral), 72.1F, humid 92% — baseline conditions
- Run line AWAY -1.5 shows 26.2% edge (model 48.2%) — significant confidence
Risk Factors
- 24.6% edge away (usually historically weak) shows rare +EV — but still upper-edge range (a supportive track record historical)
- STL market respecting game at -116 (smart betting by books)
- F5 market disabled per calibration, but F5 edge 30.9% compelling
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY ADVANTAGEF5 STRONG EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 66.3%
-53.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-53.0 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.