CHC vs TB prediction for April 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.1 - CHC 5.0. CHC is favored with a 67.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
TB
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCHC
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHCTB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
TB
135
Pick Results
Kyle Tucker OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.36u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF36%92 mph15% whiff
FC15%86 mph15% whiff
ST15%80 mph30% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF34%95 mph7% whiff
CH21%86 mph32% whiff
SL14%87 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.47ERA
3.61FIP
9.01K/9
2.60BB/9
1.17WHIP
TB
4.11ERA
3.89FIP
9.68K/9
2.99BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-38.6% EV
+164
ML HOME
-31.0% EV
-123
ML AWAY
+29.4% EV
+106
F5_ML HOME
-28.6% EV
-143
F5_ML AWAY
+27.1% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-16.6% EV
-200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.5 runs
52.6% win
TB F5
1.6 runs
30.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
62.2%
YRFI
37.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Seiya Suzuki RF10-DAY-IL
Cade Horton SP15-DAY-IL
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Ryan Pepiot SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE48.7% WR (n=232)
Model's 29.4% ML edge (62.8% vs 48.5%) is dangerously high and falls in YELLOW zone (48.7% historical WR) — high edges correlate with losses; market respected TB despite Taillon's pitcher advantage.
Key Factors
- Taillon (0.00 ERA, 19.6% K, 5.5% BB, B- overall) clearly superior to McClanahan (4.17 ERA, 22.4% K, 12.2% BB, C+ overall)
- Model's 29.4% edge in YELLOW zone (48.7% historical WR) = RED FLAG for overconfidence
- Dome neutral weather removes park/weather edge
- Model prob 62.8% (very high) — performance data shows 70%+ prob picks win 0% historically
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE WARNING: 29.4% edges in ML historically fail (48.7% WR) — market likely correct to resist
- Taillon on short rest or facing unfamiliar lineup could negate ERA advantage
- YELLOW zone (not GREEN) suggests play is below breakeven despite pitcher advantage
HIGH EDGE WARNINGML VALUEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 67.6%
-38.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-38.6 pts
Total
7.5
+0.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →