CHC vs TEX prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.9 - CHC 4.4. CHC is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
TEX
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXCHC
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.9 — CHC 4.4
Actual
TEX 6 — CHC 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH33%93 mph30% whiff
SI21%96 mph4% whiff
CU20%84 mph26% whiff
Jack Leiter R
TEX
FF40%97 mph24% whiff
CH21%90 mph36% whiff
SL18%87 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
90°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.69ERA
4.76FIP
8.23K/9
4.04BB/9
1.23WHIP
TEX
2.85ERA
3.99FIP
7.63K/9
3.72BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.5% EV
-154
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.3% EV
+128
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-8.5% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-7.2% EV
+106
ML AWAY
-5.6% EV
-133
NRFI NRFI
+5.2% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.5 runs
46.6% win
TEX F5
2.2 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Seiya Suzuki CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.298 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.02x
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Jack Leiter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Jack Leiter
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Declan Cronin RPOUT
Nabil Crismatt SPOUT
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Cody Freeman 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.5% WR (n=284)
Both starters have weak ERAs (Leiter 5.89, Cabrera 3.53) creating a near-coin flip (46.5% CHC vs 46.7% market home). No meaningful edge exists. NRFI edge at 5.2% is actionable but F5/NRFI market thresholds require 8%+ edge. Skip.
Key Factors
- SP quality nearly identical: Leiter (5.89 ERA, B stuff, 27.5% K) vs Cabrera (3.53 ERA, C+ stuff, 20.2% K). Leiter's K-rate is high but ERA is awful.
- Market pricing: TEX home ML 114 (46.7% implied) vs model 46.1% = -0.6% edge (none).
- Park factor: Globe Life Field retractable dome. Heat (90.3F) is suppressed if roof closed. Neutral baseline.
- NRFI edge 5.2% is subthreshold. Not betting-worthy by calibration standards.
Risk Factors
- No edge means max variance. Coin flip outcomes.
- Leiter is a high-variance arm (great K but terrible results). Unpredictable.
- CHC lineup unknown quality vs TEX hitters.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.5%
-38.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →