CIN vs CHC prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.6 - CIN 5.0. CHC is favored with a 64.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
CHC
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
CIN
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCCIN
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CIN W5CHC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
CHC
579
Projected
CHC 6.6 — CIN 5.0
Actual
CHC 5 — CIN 4
Pick Results
Carson Kelly OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.48u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Petty R
CIN
SL32%91 mph43% whiff
SI23%95 mph16% whiff
FF22%96 mph0% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH32%93 mph29% whiff
SI21%96 mph4% whiff
CU20%84 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
77°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.990
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
3.80ERA
4.79FIP
9.42K/9
6.33BB/9
1.52WHIP
CHC
3.53ERA
4.55FIP
8.46K/9
3.76BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.3% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-13.2% EV
+164
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-8.8% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.1% EV
-115
ML HOME
-4.3% EV
-213
ML AWAY
-2.2% EV
+180
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.7 runs
28.7% win
CHC F5
4.4 runs
60.4% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
45.7%
YRFI
54.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.36
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Nathaniel Lowe CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.385 | Barrel: 18.6% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Chase Petty
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Pierce Johnson RPBEREAVEMENT
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP15-DAY-IL
Caleb Thielbar RP15-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 64.7%
-5.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.1 pts
Total
11.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →