CIN vs CLE prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.7 - CIN 4.6. CIN is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECIN
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CIN W5CLE
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.7 — CIN 4.6
Actual
CLE 10 — CIN 3
Pick Results
Chase Delauter OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI48%91 mph10% whiff
SL34%82 mph28% whiff
ST11%81 mph34% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF29%96 mph26% whiff
ST27%87 mph43% whiff
CU20%82 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
81°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.64ERA
5.12FIP
9.42K/9
6.30BB/9
1.54WHIP
CLE
4.02ERA
3.96FIP
10.36K/9
3.72BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.7% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-27.6% EV
-167
F5_ML AWAY
+27.1% EV
+132
ML AWAY
+25.8% EV
+136
ML HOME
-24.4% EV
-161
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-24.0% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.5 runs
49.3% win
CLE F5
1.9 runs
33.4% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.468 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Angel Martínez CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.132 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 57.6%
-29.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.7 pts
Total
8.5
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →