CIN vs MIL prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 6.2 - CIN 6.2. MIL is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 12.4 total runs.
MIL
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
468
MIL
468
Projected
MIL 6.2 — CIN 6.2
Actual
MIL 5 — CIN 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
SI26%94 mph9% whiff
CU26%82 mph36% whiff
FF25%94 mph18% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
SI29%92 mph11% whiff
ST27%80 mph27% whiff
FF19%92 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
92°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.012 Total: 1.003
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-41.1% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.5% EV
-172
F5 OVER 4.5
+21.3% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+19.4% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-9.3% EV
-128
ML HOME
-8.8% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.7 runs
44.5% win
MIL F5
3.8 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
7.5
NRFI
39.4%
YRFI
60.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.53
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 18.0% | vs Robert Gasser
Sal Stewart CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.284 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.351 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Lodolo
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Robert Gasser
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CIN8 injured
Eugenio Suarez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 51.4%
-6.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.9 pts
Total
9.0
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →